NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

32.5%

24h Change

+4.0 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 4.0pp; volume is 3.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 16:38 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 4.0pp
24h volume is 3.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $133,076

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

32.5%

24h Change

+4.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

132 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 04:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 4:30:00 PM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	33.0%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 PM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 11:15:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	33.5%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	33.0%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	33.0%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	33.0%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	32.5%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	31.5%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	31.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	31.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	31.5%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	30.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	28.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$110.5K

Volume vs Baseline

3.8x baseline

Liquidity

$133.1K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 13

Volume Activity 83

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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