Top Movers
Surfaces the largest recent probability changes among markets with enough data quality and activity. It answers: “Where has the crowd changed its mind most?”
Methodology
How Prediction Radar selects signals
The radar ranks unusual market activity for investigation. It does not predict outcomes, estimate fair value, or recommend bets.
Four views, four different jobs
Emerging Signals
Combines movement with rising volume, liquidity and attention. It looks for markets becoming more informative before they necessarily become the largest movers.
Narrative Trends
Groups related active markets and summarizes whether movement is broad and coherent. The representative market is an entry point, not the complete narrative.
Daily Radar
A compact ranking across signal strength and confidence. It is intended as a daily reading queue, with popular-market fallback when no extra signal clears the threshold.
Inputs and confidence
- Probability movement measures direction and size over available history.
- Volume and liquidity help distinguish active markets from thin noise.
- Persistence rewards changes supported across more than a single point.
- Data confidence reflects history coverage and input completeness, not outcome certainty.
Scores are relative ranking aids. A high signal score means “unusual enough to inspect,” not “more likely to resolve Yes.”
Known limits
- Polymarket prices can be volatile, illiquid or affected by market wording.
- New markets may lack enough history for reliable 24-hour or 7-day comparison.
- Automated grouping and explanations can omit relevant real-world context.
- Data refreshes periodically, so the source market may be newer than this site.
Prediction Radar is an independent discovery tool. Verify market rules and source data yourself. Nothing here is financial or betting advice.