Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Open · Resolves in 464 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

58.5%

24h Change

-3.5 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 3.5pp; volume is 199.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 04:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 3.5pp
24h volume is 199.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $24,769

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

58.5%

24h Change

-3.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

104 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	58.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	58.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	56.0%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	56.0%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	56.0%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	56.0%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	56.0%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	56.0%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	56.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	58.0%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	58.5%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	58.0%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	58.0%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	58.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	58.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	58.5%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	59.0%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	58.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	58.5%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	62.0%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	62.0%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	62.0%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	62.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$82.9K

Volume vs Baseline

199.4x baseline

Liquidity

$24.8K

Market Significance

High (84)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 464 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2028

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 12

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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