Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

43.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

Signal Score

33/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 2.5pp; volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 11:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.5pp
24h volume is 1.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $55,865

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

43.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

116 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 11:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 11:15:00 AM	43.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	43.5%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	43.0%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	45.0%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	45.0%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	43.5%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	44.0%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	44.0%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	43.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	43.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	43.5%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	45.5%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	46.0%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	46.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	45.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	48.5%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	49.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	50.5%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	52.0%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	52.0%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	49.5%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	50.0%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	52.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	43.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$79.9K

Volume vs Baseline

1.7x baseline

Liquidity

$55.9K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 33/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 33

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 52

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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