Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

81.5%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

Signal Score

30/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.3pp; volume is 2.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 07:40 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.3pp
24h volume is 2.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $59,938

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

81.5%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

98 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	81.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	81.6%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 AM	81.5%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 PM	81.7%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 PM	81.8%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 PM	81.8%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	81.8%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	81.7%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	81.7%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	81.8%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	81.7%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	81.8%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	81.8%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 PM	81.9%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 PM	81.9%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 AM	81.9%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM	81.9%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 AM	81.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$114.5K

Volume vs Baseline

2.3x baseline

Liquidity

$59.9K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 30/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 51

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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