Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.7pp; volume is 6.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 40 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 04:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.7pp
24h volume is 6.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $167,303

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

171 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.6%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.9%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.7%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$228.5K

Volume vs Baseline

6.4x baseline

Liquidity

$167.3K

Market Significance

High (83)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 94

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

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