Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

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Current Probability

92.3%

24h Change

+61.9 pp

Signal Score

91/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 61.9pp; volume is 10.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 12:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 61.9pp
24h volume is 10.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $36,326

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

92.3%

24h Change

+61.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	92.3%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	88.1%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	83.2%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	30.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	28.1%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	24.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	58.5%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	29.5%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	72.5%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	77.0%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	77.0%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	81.0%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	89.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	81.0%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	76.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	79.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	75.0%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	62.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	57.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	55.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	53.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	50.0%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	39.0%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	38.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+9.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$154.0K

Volume vs Baseline

10.6x baseline

Liquidity

$36.3K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 91/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 49

Data Confidence High (83)

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