Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

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Current Probability

3.6%

24h Change

-7.5 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 7.5pp; volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 11:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 7.5pp
24h volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $40,483

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.6%

24h Change

-7.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

122 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 11:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 11:15:00 AM	3.6%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	3.1%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	2.5%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.7%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.2%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.3%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	3.6%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.9%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.4%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	5.0%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	3.0%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.1%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.4%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.9%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.7%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.2%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	4.7%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.6%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.0%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$101.3K

Volume vs Baseline

3.3x baseline

Liquidity

$40.5K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 25

Volume Activity 75

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

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