Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

5.0%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 2.0pp; volume is 27.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 2.0pp
24h volume is 27.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $99,554

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.0%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

17 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	5.0%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM	5.0%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM	6.0%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.0%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM	7.0%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.0%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM	7.0%
7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.0%
7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.5%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM	7.5%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	7.5%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM	7.5%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM	7.0%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM	7.0%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM	7.0%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM	7.0%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM	7.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$36.3K

Volume vs Baseline

27.4x baseline

Liquidity

$99.6K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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