Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Open · Resolves in 10 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

100.0%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

Signal Score

47/100

Data Confidence

High (86)

24h probability rose 0.2pp; volume is 4.1x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 18:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.2pp
24h volume is 4.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $195,072

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

100.0%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

181 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 06:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	100.0%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.9%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	99.9%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	99.7%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	99.9%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	99.9%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	99.8%
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	99.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$361.3K

Volume vs Baseline

4.1x baseline

Liquidity

$195.1K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 10 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 47/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 87

Liquidity Quality 96

Persistence 70

Data Confidence High (86)

Next Steps

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