Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Current Probability
59.5%
24h Change
+1.0 pp
Signal Score
25/100
Data Confidence
High (80)
24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 1.0pp
- 24h volume is 1.6x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $227,039
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
59.5%
24h Change
+1.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 58.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 58.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 58.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$36.3K
Volume vs Baseline
1.6x baseline
Liquidity
$227.0K
Market Significance
High (73)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 57 days
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Attention Score
33
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 25/100.