Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Open · Resolves in 11 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

73.5%

24h Change

-6.0 pp

Signal Score

51/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 6.0pp; volume is 4.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 52 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 17:05 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 6.0pp
24h volume is 4.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $422,936

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

73.5%

24h Change

-6.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

186 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 05:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM	73.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM	73.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM	73.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM	73.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM	74.5%
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	76.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	76.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	75.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	75.0%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	76.0%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	75.5%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	77.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	73.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	73.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	73.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	74.5%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 AM	76.5%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 AM	74.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	82.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	81.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	82.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	81.5%
9/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM	81.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	80.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$2.3M

Volume vs Baseline

4.6x baseline

Liquidity

$422.9K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 11 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 51/100.

Probability Momentum 20

Volume Activity 95

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗