Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Open · Resolves in 1 day View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.8%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

Signal Score

54/100

Data Confidence

High (89)

24h probability fell 0.3pp; volume is 8.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 23:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.3pp
24h volume is 8.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $294,985

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.8%

24h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

177 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	0.8%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.3%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.1%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.4%
9/19/2026, 8:15:00 PM	1.8%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.9%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.9%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.9%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.0%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.0%
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	1.8%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.9%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.6%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.7%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.7%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.7%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.7%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.6%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$598.5K

Volume vs Baseline

8.4x baseline

Liquidity

$295.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 1 day

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 54/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 98

Persistence 90

Data Confidence High (89)

Next Steps

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