Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Open · Resolves in 51 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

22.8%

24h Change

+0.6 pp

Signal Score

35/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 0.6pp; volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-10 11:12 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.6pp
24h volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $115,514

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

22.8%

24h Change

+0.6 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

164 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 10, 11:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/10/2026, 11:00:00 AM	22.8%
8/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM	22.9%
8/10/2026, 9:15:00 AM	22.9%
8/10/2026, 9:00:00 AM	22.9%
8/10/2026, 8:00:00 AM	24.0%
8/10/2026, 7:45:00 AM	24.0%
8/10/2026, 7:00:00 AM	24.0%
8/10/2026, 6:00:00 AM	24.0%
8/10/2026, 5:30:00 AM	24.0%
8/10/2026, 5:00:00 AM	24.1%
8/10/2026, 4:00:00 AM	24.1%
8/10/2026, 3:00:00 AM	24.1%
8/10/2026, 2:00:00 AM	24.1%
8/10/2026, 1:00:00 AM	24.1%
8/10/2026, 12:00:00 AM	23.9%
8/9/2026, 11:00:00 PM	23.9%
8/9/2026, 10:00:00 PM	23.6%
8/9/2026, 9:00:00 PM	22.9%
8/9/2026, 8:00:00 PM	22.3%
8/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM	23.3%
8/9/2026, 6:00:00 PM	22.9%
8/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM	22.6%
8/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM	22.7%
8/9/2026, 3:00:00 PM	23.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$29.6K

Volume vs Baseline

3.6x baseline

Liquidity

$115.5K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 51 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 35/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 80

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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