Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 150 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

5.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.0pp; volume is 23.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-02 20:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.0pp
24h volume is 23.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $70,748

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.5%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

131 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 2, 08:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/2/2026, 8:15:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 3:45:00 PM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 PM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 11:45:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 11:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 10:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 9:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 8:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 7:30:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 7:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 6:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 5:00:00 AM	5.7%
8/2/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 3:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/2/2026, 1:00:00 AM	5.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$78.0K

Volume vs Baseline

23.0x baseline

Liquidity

$70.7K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 150 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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