Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 104 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

7.5%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

Signal Score

17/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.7pp; volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 23:59 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.7pp
24h volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $358,719

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

7.5%

24h Change

-0.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

182 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	7.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.4%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.4%
9/19/2026, 8:15:00 PM	7.7%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 PM	6.6%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 PM	6.0%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 PM	6.2%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM	6.2%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.8%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 PM	7.2%
9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM	7.3%
9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 12:15:00 PM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 10:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 9:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 8:00:00 AM	8.6%
9/19/2026, 7:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 6:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 5:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 4:00:00 AM	8.5%
9/19/2026, 3:00:00 AM	8.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$579.3K

Volume vs Baseline

0.5x baseline

Liquidity

$358.7K

Market Significance

High (82)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 104 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 98

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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