Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 150 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

26.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

Signal Score

22/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 4.0pp; volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 4.0pp
24h volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $70,695

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

26.5%

24h Change

-4.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

158 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	26.0%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	26.0%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	25.0%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	27.0%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	26.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	27.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	25.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	27.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$73.7K

Volume vs Baseline

0.5x baseline

Liquidity

$70.7K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 150 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 22/100.

Probability Momentum 13

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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