Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Current Probability
5.5%
24h Change
+0.5 pp
Signal Score
42/100
Data Confidence
High (80)
24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 66.1x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 0.5pp
- 24h volume is 66.1x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $98,300
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
5.5%
24h Change
+0.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 5.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 4.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 5.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 5.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 5.0% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$57.8K
Volume vs Baseline
66.1x baseline
Liquidity
$98.3K
Market Significance
High (78)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 149 days
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Attention Score
68
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.