Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

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Current Probability

3.9%

24h Change

-1.7 pp

Signal Score

23/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability fell 1.7pp; volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-18 10:53 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.7pp
24h volume is 0.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $134,297

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

3.9%

24h Change

-1.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

25 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 18, 10:45 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/18/2026, 10:45:00 AM	3.9%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM	3.9%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 4:30:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.0%
9/17/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.0%
9/17/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.5%
9/17/2026, 9:00:00 PM	5.2%
9/17/2026, 8:00:00 PM	4.8%
9/17/2026, 7:00:00 PM	4.7%
9/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.9%
9/17/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.8%
9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM	2.6%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.4%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.1%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$99.3K

Volume vs Baseline

0.6x baseline

Liquidity

$134.3K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 13, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 23/100.

Probability Momentum 6

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 44

Data Confidence High (83)

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