Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

99.4%

24h Change

+2.7 pp

Signal Score

34/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 2.7pp; volume is 1.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 23:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.7pp
24h volume is 1.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $56,923

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.4%

24h Change

+2.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

109 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 11:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 PM	99.4%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 PM	99.2%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM	99.3%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 PM	98.6%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	99.0%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	98.9%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	98.1%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	98.5%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	98.3%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	98.3%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	98.4%
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	97.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	97.5%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	97.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	97.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	97.6%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	97.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	97.6%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	97.7%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	97.7%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	97.7%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	97.2%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	97.5%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	97.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$85.6K

Volume vs Baseline

1.9x baseline

Liquidity

$56.9K

Market Significance

High (75)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 34/100.

Probability Momentum 9

Volume Activity 40

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 45

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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