Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Open · Resolves in 150 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

16.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

Signal Score

49/100

Data Confidence

High (83)

24h probability rose 2.5pp; volume is 5.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 10:05 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 2.5pp
24h volume is 5.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $54,588

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

16.5%

24h Change

+2.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

61 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	16.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	16.0%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	16.0%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	16.0%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	16.0%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	16.0%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	15.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	18.0%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	18.0%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	16.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	16.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	17.0%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	14.0%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	14.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$45.2K

Volume vs Baseline

5.4x baseline

Liquidity

$54.6K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 150 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 49/100.

Probability Momentum 8

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 52

Data Confidence High (83)

Next Steps

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