Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

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Current Probability

99.7%

24h Change

+52.2 pp

Signal Score

92/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 52.2pp; volume is 5.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-20 18:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 52.2pp
24h volume is 5.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $36,406

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

99.7%

24h Change

+52.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

179 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 20, 06:30 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	99.7%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	99.1%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	86.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	62.5%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	53.0%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	33.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	45.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	46.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	46.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	45.5%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	45.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	46.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 4:30:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 AM	47.5%
9/19/2026, 11:45:00 PM	47.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+13.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$351.6K

Volume vs Baseline

5.4x baseline

Liquidity

$36.4K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 92/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 55

Data Confidence High (84)

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