Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-52.5 pp

Signal Score

81/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 52.5pp; volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 04:13 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 52.5pp
24h volume is 3.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $54,982

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-52.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

177 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.2%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.2%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.2%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	0.3%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	0.3%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.8%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	35.5%
9/20/2026, 3:45:00 PM	47.5%
9/20/2026, 3:00:00 PM	65.0%
9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM	54.5%
9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM	52.5%
9/20/2026, 12:00:00 PM	53.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM	53.0%
9/20/2026, 10:45:00 AM	53.0%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 AM	52.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM	52.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$214.9K

Volume vs Baseline

3.6x baseline

Liquidity

$55.0K

Market Significance

High (81)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 81/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 79

Liquidity Quality 91

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

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