Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Open · Resolves in 52 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

6.0%

24h Change

-1.5 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 1.5pp; volume is 28.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-13 02:21 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.5pp
24h volume is 28.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $60,320

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

6.0%

24h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

167 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 13, 02:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/13/2026, 2:15:00 AM	6.0%
8/13/2026, 2:00:00 AM	6.0%
8/13/2026, 1:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/13/2026, 12:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.9%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 PM	5.3%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 1:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 12:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM	5.5%
8/12/2026, 10:00:00 AM	5.6%
8/12/2026, 9:00:00 AM	5.9%
8/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM	6.3%
8/12/2026, 7:00:00 AM	7.6%
8/12/2026, 6:00:00 AM	7.6%
8/12/2026, 5:00:00 AM	7.6%
8/12/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$65.4K

Volume vs Baseline

28.4x baseline

Liquidity

$60.3K

Market Significance

High (73)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 52 days

End Date

Oct 4, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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