Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 145 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

5.0%

24h Change

-6.5 pp

Signal Score

51/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 6.5pp; volume is 13.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-08 08:07 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 6.5pp
24h volume is 13.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $114,549

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.0%

24h Change

-6.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

166 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 8, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/8/2026, 8:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/8/2026, 7:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/8/2026, 6:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/8/2026, 5:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/8/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.0%
8/8/2026, 3:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/8/2026, 2:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/8/2026, 1:00:00 AM	6.5%
8/8/2026, 12:00:00 AM	4.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 PM	4.5%
8/7/2026, 8:00:00 PM	6.5%
8/7/2026, 7:00:00 PM	5.5%
8/7/2026, 6:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 5:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 4:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 3:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 2:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 12:00:00 PM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 11:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 10:00:00 AM	11.5%
8/7/2026, 9:00:00 AM	11.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$51.3K

Volume vs Baseline

13.2x baseline

Liquidity

$114.5K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 145 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 51/100.

Probability Momentum 22

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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