Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Current Probability
47.5%
24h Change
-6.0 pp
Signal Score
43/100
Data Confidence
High (83)
24h probability fell 6.0pp; volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 6.0pp
- 24h volume is 2.5x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $60,116
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
47.5%
24h Change
-6.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
-0.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$78.4K
Volume vs Baseline
2.5x baseline
Liquidity
$60.1K
Market Significance
High (76)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 99 days
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Attention Score
52
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.