Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

7.3%

24h Change

+1.1 pp

Signal Score

41/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 1.1pp; volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 13:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.1pp
24h volume is 5.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $81,223

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

7.3%

24h Change

+1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

32 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	7.3%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	7.7%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	7.6%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	8.1%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	8.0%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	7.0%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	7.0%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	7.8%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	6.9%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	7.5%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM	6.2%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM	6.2%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 AM	6.2%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	6.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$49.6K

Volume vs Baseline

5.0x baseline

Liquidity

$81.2K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 41/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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