Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.9%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

Signal Score

31/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 0.2pp; volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 13:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.2pp
24h volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $77,283

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.9%

24h Change

-0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

51 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	1.9%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.9%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.9%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.9%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.9%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.9%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	2.1%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	2.3%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$46.8K

Volume vs Baseline

2.6x baseline

Liquidity

$77.3K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 31/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 59

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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