Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.1%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

High (88)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-30 13:18 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 2.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $65,498

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.1%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

50 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 30, 01:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.2%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.2%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.2%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.2%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.2%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.2%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$47.5K

Volume vs Baseline

2.9x baseline

Liquidity

$65.5K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 65

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 100

Data Confidence High (88)

Next Steps

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