Iran leadership change by December 31?

Iran leadership change by...?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

15.5%

24h Change

-5.0 pp

Signal Score

40/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 5.0pp; volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 11 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-03 23:54 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 5.0pp
24h volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $108,822

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

15.5%

24h Change

-5.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

146 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 3, 11:45 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 1:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 10:45:00 AM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 9:15:00 AM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 8:45:00 AM	15.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM	15.0%
8/3/2026, 7:30:00 AM	15.0%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 AM	16.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$80.2K

Volume vs Baseline

2.8x baseline

Liquidity

$108.8K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 40/100.

Probability Momentum 17

Volume Activity 64

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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