Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 57 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.4%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

Signal Score

42/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 0.1pp; volume is 44.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-01 20:14 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 0.1pp
24h volume is 44.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $157,907

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.4%

24h Change

-0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

84 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 1, 08:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 3:30:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 11:45:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$321.5K

Volume vs Baseline

44.4x baseline

Liquidity

$157.9K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 57 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 42/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 95

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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