Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Open · Resolves in 514 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

13.5%

24h Change

+1.5 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 1.5pp; volume is 13.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 10:05 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 1.5pp
24h volume is 13.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $195,094

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

13.5%

24h Change

+1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

61 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	14.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	14.0%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	17.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	12.0%
7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM	12.0%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	12.0%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$217.7K

Volume vs Baseline

13.2x baseline

Liquidity

$195.1K

Market Significance

High (90)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 514 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 93

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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