Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Fed Decision in July?
Current Probability
79.5%
24h Change
+7.8 pp
Signal Score
52/100
Data Confidence
High (87)
24h probability rose 7.8pp; volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 7.8pp
- 24h volume is 2.6x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $285,987
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
79.5%
24h Change
+7.8 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 79.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 75.4% |
| 7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 75.0% |
| 7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 76.9% |
| 7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 77.8% |
| 7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 79.3% |
| 7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 79.8% |
| 7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 79.3% |
| 7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 78.1% |
| 7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 76.4% |
| 7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 75.9% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+4.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$3.2M
Volume vs Baseline
2.6x baseline
Liquidity
$286.0K
Market Significance
High (87)
Market Status
Closed
End Date
Jul 29, 2026
Attention Score
57
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 52/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 26
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 59
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 100
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 71
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (87)