Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Fed Decision in July?

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Current Probability

21.1%

24h Change

-7.0 pp

Signal Score

44/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 7.0pp; volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 7.0pp
24h volume is 2.7x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $202,032

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

21.1%

24h Change

-7.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

21 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	21.1%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM	21.1%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM	22.6%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM	23.7%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	24.3%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM	24.6%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM	24.9%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM	24.8%
7/29/2026, 12:00:00 AM	24.2%
7/28/2026, 11:00:00 PM	24.3%
7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM	23.3%
7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM	23.2%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM	22.9%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	22.3%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM	19.9%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM	20.1%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM	20.3%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM	22.4%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM	23.3%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM	24.3%
7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM	24.9%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$1.9M

Volume vs Baseline

2.7x baseline

Liquidity

$202.0K

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jul 29, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 44/100.

Probability Momentum 23

Volume Activity 63

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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