Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Fed rate hike by...?

Open · Resolves in 127 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

21.3%

24h Change

-4.8 pp

Signal Score

31/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 4.8pp; volume is 1.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-29 08:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 4.8pp
24h volume is 1.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $47,836

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

21.3%

24h Change

-4.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

21 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 29, 08:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/29/2026, 8:00:00 AM	21.3%
7/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM	22.1%
7/29/2026, 6:00:00 AM	22.2%
7/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM	22.2%
7/29/2026, 4:00:00 AM	22.2%
7/29/2026, 3:00:00 AM	21.9%
7/29/2026, 2:00:00 AM	21.9%
7/29/2026, 1:00:00 AM	23.4%
7/29/2026, 12:00:00 AM	23.4%
7/28/2026, 11:00:00 PM	23.4%
7/28/2026, 10:00:00 PM	22.4%
7/28/2026, 9:00:00 PM	22.6%
7/28/2026, 8:00:00 PM	22.4%
7/28/2026, 7:00:00 PM	21.6%
7/28/2026, 6:00:00 PM	20.5%
7/28/2026, 5:00:00 PM	18.9%
7/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM	20.2%
7/28/2026, 3:00:00 PM	21.8%
7/28/2026, 2:00:00 PM	23.8%
7/28/2026, 1:00:00 PM	24.7%
7/28/2026, 12:00:00 PM	24.8%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$31.1K

Volume vs Baseline

1.3x baseline

Liquidity

$47.8K

Market Significance

High (74)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 127 days

End Date

Dec 9, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 31/100.

Probability Momentum 16

Volume Activity 16

Liquidity Quality 82

Persistence 50

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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