Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Open · Resolves in 79 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

86.0%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

Signal Score

46/100

Data Confidence

High (86)

24h probability fell 2.0pp; volume is 3.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-16 18:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 2.0pp
24h volume is 3.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $9,168

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

86.0%

24h Change

-2.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

58 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 16, 06:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM	86.0%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 1:15:00 PM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 AM	88.0%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 AM	88.0%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 7:15:00 AM	88.0%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 AM	86.5%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 AM	87.0%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 AM	87.5%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 AM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 AM	88.0%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 AM	88.5%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 AM	88.5%
9/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM	86.0%
9/15/2026, 10:00:00 PM	88.0%
9/15/2026, 9:00:00 PM	88.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$177.7K

Volume vs Baseline

3.0x baseline

Liquidity

$9.2K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 79 days

End Date

Dec 9, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 46/100.

Probability Momentum 7

Volume Activity 69

Liquidity Quality 84

Persistence 85

Data Confidence High (86)

Next Steps

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