Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Fed rate hike by...?
Current Probability
60.5%
24h Change
-11.0 pp
Signal Score
56/100
Data Confidence
High (79)
24h probability fell 11.0pp; volume is 6.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability fell 11.0pp
- 24h volume is 6.6x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $81,990
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
60.5%
24h Change
-11.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7/30/2026, 1:15:00 PM | 60.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 60.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM | 60.0% |
| 7/30/2026, 11:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:30:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/30/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 59.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 59.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 60.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 64.0% |
| 7/29/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 72.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM | 71.5% |
| 7/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM | 71.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.5 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$26.7K
Volume vs Baseline
6.6x baseline
Liquidity
$82.0K
Market Significance
High (75)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 127 days
End Date
Dec 9, 2026
Attention Score
78
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 56/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 37
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 100
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 84
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 10
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (79)