US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

5.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 1.0pp; volume is 12.4x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-19 00:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.0pp
24h volume is 12.4x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $147,558

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

5.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

28 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 19, 12:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/19/2026, 12:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 8:30:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 3:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 12:00:00 PM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 11:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 10:45:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 9:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 8:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 7:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 6:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 5:00:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 4:30:00 AM	5.5%
9/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM	5.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$77.1K

Volume vs Baseline

12.4x baseline

Liquidity

$147.6K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 89

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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