Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Open · Resolves in 57 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (81)

24h probability fell 1.0pp; volume is 33.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-07-31 10:05 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.0pp
24h volume is 33.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $229,882

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.5%

24h Change

-1.0 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

63 stored snapshots · Latest sample Jul 31, 10:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.5%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.6%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.5%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.4%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.6%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.3%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.3%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 6:45:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.1%
7/30/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.5%
7/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM	2.5%
7/30/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.5%
7/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM	2.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$173.3K

Volume vs Baseline

33.0x baseline

Liquidity

$229.9K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 57 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 92

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (81)

Next Steps

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