Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

0.3%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

Signal Score

17/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.2pp; volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 12 hours ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-24 04:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.2pp
24h volume is 0.5x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $336,290

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.3%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

165 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 24, 04:00 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/24/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/24/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/24/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 10:45:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 6:15:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 1:15:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.4%
9/23/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/23/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.4%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$90.1K

Volume vs Baseline

0.5x baseline

Liquidity

$336.3K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 17/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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