Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

-7.8 pp

Signal Score

53/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability fell 7.8pp; volume is 7.0x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 12:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 7.8pp
24h volume is 7.0x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $29,929

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

-7.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

123 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.5%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.3%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.6%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$140.4K

Volume vs Baseline

7.0x baseline

Liquidity

$29.9K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 53/100.

Probability Momentum 26

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 87

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (80)

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