Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

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Current Probability

0.4%

24h Change

-30.9 pp

Signal Score

80/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 30.9pp; volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 19:10 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 30.9pp
24h volume is 2.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $20,919

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.4%

24h Change

-30.9 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

99 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 07:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.4%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.3%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 PM	2.8%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.4%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 PM	2.6%
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	2.2%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	3.4%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	2.3%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	22.3%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	23.8%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	20.9%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	14.9%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	6.9%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	19.8%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	14.1%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	31.6%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	31.8%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	30.8%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	32.6%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	34.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$74.1K

Volume vs Baseline

2.8x baseline

Liquidity

$20.9K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 80/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 64

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 42

Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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