Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

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Current Probability

95.2%

24h Change

+51.7 pp

Signal Score

84/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 51.7pp; volume is 14.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 12:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 51.7pp
24h volume is 14.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $21,225

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

95.2%

24h Change

+51.7 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

103 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	95.2%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	93.5%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	96.3%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	97.5%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.0%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	75.4%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	75.8%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	76.7%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	83.2%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	91.8%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	77.0%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	77.3%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	66.6%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	65.6%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	65.5%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	65.5%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	60.9%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	66.0%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	65.5%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	66.0%
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	68.8%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	71.5%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	60.1%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	59.2%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$105.9K

Volume vs Baseline

14.3x baseline

Liquidity

$21.2K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 84/100.

Probability Momentum 100

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

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