Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?

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Current Probability

1.1%

24h Change

-16.8 pp

Signal Score

65/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability fell 16.8pp; volume is 3.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-21 12:25 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 16.8pp
24h volume is 3.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $22,749

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.1%

24h Change

-16.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

105 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 21, 12:15 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/21/2026, 12:15:00 PM	1.1%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.2%
9/21/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/21/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/21/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/21/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.8%
9/21/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.6%
9/21/2026, 6:00:00 AM	2.2%
9/21/2026, 5:00:00 AM	2.3%
9/21/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.4%
9/21/2026, 3:00:00 AM	3.1%
9/21/2026, 2:00:00 AM	2.4%
9/21/2026, 1:00:00 AM	2.1%
9/21/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/20/2026, 11:00:00 PM	3.1%
9/20/2026, 10:15:00 PM	2.3%
9/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM	2.1%
9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.8%
9/20/2026, 8:00:00 PM	2.1%
9/20/2026, 7:00:00 PM	2.4%
9/20/2026, 6:30:00 PM	3.0%
9/20/2026, 6:00:00 PM	3.8%
9/20/2026, 5:00:00 PM	4.3%
9/20/2026, 4:00:00 PM	5.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$102.0K

Volume vs Baseline

3.8x baseline

Liquidity

$22.7K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 20, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 65/100.

Probability Momentum 56

Volume Activity 83

Liquidity Quality 85

Persistence 43

Data Confidence High (82)

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