Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

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Current Probability

1.5%

24h Change

+1.3 pp

Signal Score

18/100

Data Confidence

Medium (70)

24h probability rose 1.2pp

Market data

Updated 4 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-17 04:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

Volume baseline unavailable or history insufficient
Liquidity depth $17,833
Medium data confidence (70)

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.5%

24h Change

+1.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

65 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 17, 04:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/17/2026, 4:15:00 AM	1.5%
9/17/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/17/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/17/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/17/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/17/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 10:45:00 PM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.5%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 1:15:00 PM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM	1.6%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.8%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.3%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$157.0K

Volume vs Baseline

Baseline unavailable

Liquidity

$17.8K

Market Significance

High (77)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Jun 1, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.

Probability Momentum 4

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 20

Data Confidence Medium (70)

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