Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?

Open · Resolves in 7 days View on Polymarket ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Current Probability

99.3%

24h Change

+36.3 pp

Signal Score

89/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

24h probability rose 36.3pp; volume is 52.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 35 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-19 16:35 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

  • 24h probability rose 36.3pp
  • 24h volume is 52.8x the prior 6-day daily average
  • Liquidity depth $20,237

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

No samples yet

Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.

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Current

99.3%

24h Change

+36.3 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

0 stored snapshots

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$121.6K

Volume vs Baseline

52.8x baseline

Liquidity

$20.2K

Market Significance

High (71)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 7 days

End Date

Sep 30, 2026

Attention Score

97

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 89/100.

Probability Momentum 100
Volume Activity 100
Liquidity Quality 85
Persistence 40
Data Confidence High (82)

Next Steps

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