Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Current Probability
99.3%
24h Change
+36.3 pp
Signal Score
89/100
Data Confidence
High (82)
24h probability rose 36.3pp; volume is 52.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 36.3pp
- 24h volume is 52.8x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $20,237
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Not enough history to chart yet (7d of stored history, 0 point s). Charts fill in after sync backfills CLOB history.
Browse other marketsCurrent
99.3%
24h Change
+36.3 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
+0.1 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$121.6K
Volume vs Baseline
52.8x baseline
Liquidity
$20.2K
Market Significance
High (71)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 7 days
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Attention Score
97
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 89/100.