Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Closed View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

14.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

15/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 0.8x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-01 07:36 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 0.8x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $146,046

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

14.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

85 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 1, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/1/2026, 7:30:00 AM	14.0%
8/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM	14.0%
8/1/2026, 6:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/1/2026, 5:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/1/2026, 4:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/1/2026, 3:00:00 AM	15.5%
8/1/2026, 2:00:00 AM	14.5%
8/1/2026, 1:00:00 AM	15.0%
8/1/2026, 12:00:00 AM	15.5%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 PM	15.5%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 PM	14.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 PM	12.5%
7/31/2026, 8:00:00 PM	12.0%
7/31/2026, 7:00:00 PM	14.0%
7/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM	14.0%
7/31/2026, 5:00:00 PM	14.5%
7/31/2026, 4:00:00 PM	14.5%
7/31/2026, 3:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 1:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 12:00:00 PM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 11:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 10:00:00 AM	13.5%
7/31/2026, 9:00:00 AM	13.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$41.3K

Volume vs Baseline

0.8x baseline

Liquidity

$146.0K

Market Significance

High (78)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Apr 30, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 15/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 86

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

Keep exploring radar picks or open the full market catalog.

Back to radar Browse all markets View on Polymarket ↗