Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Open · Resolves in 149 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

57.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

Signal Score

16/100

Data Confidence

High (80)

24h probability rose 0.5pp; volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 55 minutes ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.5pp
24h volume is 0.9x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $314,306

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

57.0%

24h Change

+0.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

183 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	57.0%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	57.5%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	58.5%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	56.5%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	56.5%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	56.5%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	57.5%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	57.5%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	56.5%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	56.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$101.8K

Volume vs Baseline

0.9x baseline

Liquidity

$314.3K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 149 days

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 16/100.

Probability Momentum 2

Volume Activity 0

Liquidity Quality 90

Persistence 10

Data Confidence High (80)

Next Steps

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