Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

12.5%

24h Change

-1.5 pp

Signal Score

43/100

Data Confidence

High (79)

24h probability fell 1.5pp; volume is 80.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-23 07:34 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability fell 1.5pp
24h volume is 80.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $16,068

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

12.5%

24h Change

-1.5 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

129 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 23, 07:30 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/23/2026, 7:30:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 7:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 6:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 5:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 4:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 3:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 2:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 1:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/23/2026, 12:00:00 AM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 PM	13.0%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 PM	13.0%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM	13.0%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 PM	12.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	13.0%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	13.0%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	13.5%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$76.9K

Volume vs Baseline

80.6x baseline

Liquidity

$16.1K

Market Significance

High (72)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 43/100.

Probability Momentum 5

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 83

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (79)

Next Steps

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