Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Open · Resolves in 99 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

97.4%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

Signal Score

47/100

Data Confidence

High (84)

24h probability rose 0.2pp; volume is 10.6x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 day ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-22 21:04 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.2pp
24h volume is 10.6x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $51,843

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

97.4%

24h Change

+0.2 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

134 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 22, 09:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 PM	97.4%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 PM	97.3%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 PM	97.2%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM	96.9%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 PM	96.9%
9/22/2026, 4:30:00 PM	96.7%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 PM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 PM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 PM	96.4%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 PM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 PM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 11:15:00 AM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 11:00:00 AM	96.5%
9/22/2026, 10:00:00 AM	96.4%
9/22/2026, 9:00:00 AM	96.3%
9/22/2026, 8:00:00 AM	95.9%
9/22/2026, 7:00:00 AM	96.4%
9/22/2026, 6:00:00 AM	95.8%
9/22/2026, 5:00:00 AM	95.9%
9/22/2026, 4:00:00 AM	96.4%
9/22/2026, 3:00:00 AM	95.5%
9/22/2026, 2:00:00 AM	95.8%
9/22/2026, 1:00:00 AM	96.7%
9/22/2026, 12:00:00 AM	95.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.1 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$103.7K

Volume vs Baseline

10.6x baseline

Liquidity

$51.8K

Market Significance

High (76)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 99 days

End Date

Jan 1, 2027

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 47/100.

Probability Momentum 1

Volume Activity 100

Liquidity Quality 88

Persistence 60

Data Confidence High (84)

Next Steps

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