Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

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Current Probability

0.1%

24h Change

Unchanged

Signal Score

37/100

Data Confidence

High (82)

volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 3 days ago

Last radar sync

2026-09-16 18:01 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability was effectively unchanged
24h volume is 3.3x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $6,305,406

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

0.1%

24h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

106 stored snapshots · Latest sample Sep 16, 06:00 PM

View history table

Time	Probability
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 1:15:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 11:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 10:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 9:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 8:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 7:15:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 7:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 6:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 5:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 4:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 3:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 2:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 1:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/16/2026, 12:00:00 AM	0.1%
9/15/2026, 11:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/15/2026, 10:00:00 PM	0.1%
9/15/2026, 9:00:00 PM	0.1%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

Unchanged

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$1.9M

Volume vs Baseline

3.3x baseline

Liquidity

$6.3M

Market Significance

High (87)

Market Status

Closed

End Date

Sep 16, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 37/100.

Probability Momentum 0

Volume Activity 74

Liquidity Quality 100

Persistence 20

Data Confidence High (82)

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