Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Open · Resolves in 43 days View on Polymarket ↗

Current Probability

1.8%

24h Change

+0.8 pp

Signal Score

38/100

Data Confidence

High (87)

24h probability rose 0.8pp; volume is 2.2x the prior 6-day daily average

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Last radar sync

2026-08-04 10:16 UTC

Why This Signal Matters

Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.

24h probability rose 0.8pp
24h volume is 2.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Liquidity depth $684,018

Probability History

Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.

Current

1.8%

24h Change

+0.8 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

Coverage

7d of stored history

173 stored snapshots · Latest sample Aug 4, 10:15 AM

View history table

Time	Probability
8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM	1.8%
8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM	1.8%
8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM	1.5%
8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM	1.4%
8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM	1.4%
8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM	1.3%
8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM	1.1%
8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM	1.3%

Market Snapshot

Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.

1h Change

+0.4 pp

7d Change

Insufficient 7d price history

24h Volume

$597.4K

Volume vs Baseline

2.2x baseline

Liquidity

$684.0K

Market Significance

High (79)

Market Status

Open · Resolves in 43 days

End Date

Sep 16, 2026

Attention Score

Signal Quality Breakdown

Components behind the hero Signal Score of 38/100.

Probability Momentum 3

Volume Activity 48

Liquidity Quality 98

Persistence 70

Data Confidence High (87)

Next Steps

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