Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Current Probability
42.5%
24h Change
+1.0 pp
Signal Score
18/100
Data Confidence
High (80)
24h probability rose 1.0pp; volume is 0.2x the prior 6-day daily average
Why This Signal Matters
Supporting facts beyond the headline signal reason.
- 24h probability rose 1.0pp
- 24h volume is 0.2x the prior 6-day daily average
- Liquidity depth $491,136
Probability History
Stored CLOB and sync snapshots with a compact read of recent movement.
Current
42.5%
24h Change
+1.0 pp
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
Coverage
7d of stored history
View history table
| Time | Probability |
|---|---|
| 8/4/2026, 10:15:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 9:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 8:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 7:15:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 7:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 6:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 5:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 4:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 3:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 2:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 1:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/4/2026, 12:00:00 AM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 11:45:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 11:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 9:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 8:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 7:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 6:15:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
| 8/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 42.5% |
Market Snapshot
Incremental context not covered in the hero summary.
1h Change
Unchanged
7d Change
Insufficient 7d price history
24h Volume
$73.4K
Volume vs Baseline
0.2x baseline
Liquidity
$491.1K
Market Significance
High (74)
Market Status
Open · Resolves in 43 days
End Date
Sep 16, 2026
Attention Score
19
Signal Quality Breakdown
Components behind the hero Signal Score of 18/100.
Probability Momentum
Strength of recent probability movement 3
Volume Activity
Trading activity versus the recent baseline 0
Liquidity Quality
Depth available to absorb orders without large price impact 89
Persistence
Whether the move holds across more than one lookback window 20
Data Confidence
Independent quality score for history coverage and data reliability High (80)